Gravitational Vacuum Decay and Inflation

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We argue that moduli stabilization severely constrains the evolution following transitions between weakly coupled de Sitter vacua and can induce a strong selection bias towards inflationary cosmologies. We carefully discuss gravitational vacuum decays and resolve a naive sign ambiguity in the exponential of the decay rate. Equipped with this clear understanding of vacuum decay we then turn towards constraints on the cosmological evolution after transitions in weakly coupled flux compactifications. The energy density of domain walls between vacua typically destabilizes Kahler moduli and triggers a runaway towards large volume. This decompactification phase can collapse the new de Sitter region unless inflation lasts for more than roughly 60 efolds. High scale inflation is vastly favored. Our results illustrate the necessity to understand inflationary initial conditions at least at a basic level, before making predictions in the landscape.